[Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].
Identifieur interne : 000065 ( an2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000064; suivant : 000066[Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].
Auteurs : L L Huang [République populaire de Chine] ; S P Shen [République populaire de Chine] ; P. Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Y Y Wei [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi [ 0254-6450 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision- making departments. Methods: Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number R(0)(t) to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time. Results: For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the R(0)(t) showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, R(0)(t) began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75%) had the R(0)(t)s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally. Conclusions: Dynamic R(0)(t) is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.
DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200209-00080
PubMed: 32113197
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000390
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000390
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000059
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000A22
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000A22
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000A22
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000067
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000065
- to stream Main, to step Exploration: 000065
- to stream an2020, to step Extraction: 000065
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32113197Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">[Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].</title><author><name sortKey="Huang, L L" sort="Huang, L L" uniqKey="Huang L" first="L L" last="Huang">L L Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200032</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, S P" sort="Shen, S P" uniqKey="Shen S" first="S P" last="Shen">S P Shen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nanjing 211166</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, P" sort="Yu, P" uniqKey="Yu P" first="P" last="Yu">P. Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Jingan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200072, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Jingan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200072</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200072</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Y Y" sort="Wei, Y Y" uniqKey="Wei Y" first="Y Y" last="Wei">Y Y Wei</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nanjing 211166</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32113197</idno><idno type="pmid">32113197</idno><idno type="doi">10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200209-00080</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000390</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000390</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000390</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000390</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000059</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000059</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000A22</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000A22</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000A22</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0254-6450:2020:Huang L:dynamic:basic:reproduction</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000067</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000065</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000065</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/an2020/Extraction">000065</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">[Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].</title><author><name sortKey="Huang, L L" sort="Huang, L L" uniqKey="Huang L" first="L L" last="Huang">L L Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200032</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, S P" sort="Shen, S P" uniqKey="Shen S" first="S P" last="Shen">S P Shen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nanjing 211166</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, P" sort="Yu, P" uniqKey="Yu P" first="P" last="Yu">P. Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Jingan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200072, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Jingan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200072</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200072</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Y Y" sort="Wei, Y Y" uniqKey="Wei Y" first="Y Y" last="Wei">Y Y Wei</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nanjing 211166</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi</title><idno type="ISSN">0254-6450</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Objective:</b> To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision- making departments. <b>Methods:</b> Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number <i>R(0)</i>(t) to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time. <b>Results:</b> For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the <i>R(0)</i>(t) showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, <i>R(0)</i>(t) began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75%) had the <i>R(0)</i>(t)s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally. <b>Conclusions:</b> Dynamic <i>R(0)</i>(t) is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Huang, L L" sort="Huang, L L" uniqKey="Huang L" first="L L" last="Huang">L L Huang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Shen, S P" sort="Shen, S P" uniqKey="Shen S" first="S P" last="Shen">S P Shen</name><name sortKey="Wei, Y Y" sort="Wei, Y Y" uniqKey="Wei Y" first="Y Y" last="Wei">Y Y Wei</name><name sortKey="Yu, P" sort="Yu, P" uniqKey="Yu P" first="P" last="Yu">P. Yu</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/an2020/Analysis
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000065 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000065 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= CovidV1
|flux= an2020
|étape= Analysis
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32113197
|texte= [Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32113197" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |